AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Corn futures closed the Friday session with most contracts within 1/4 cent of UNCH. This morning’s Export Sales report showed old crop sales totaling 6.056 MMT in the weeks ending Jan 10-Feb 14. That was an average weekly sale of 1.009 MMT, and 42% behind last year. New crop sales were 29,170 MT. The lead buyer of corn in that time frame was Mexico at 1.427 MMT, with Japan at 1.349 MMT. Total Commitments are still 2.1% larger than last year. USDA released more forecasts for 19/20 at this morning’s Ag Outlook Forum, showing carry out at 1.65 mbu, down 85 mbu from this year’s projection. This afternoon’s Grain Crushing report showed a total of 460.512 mbu of corn used for ethanol production in December. That was up 1.3% from November but down 5.58% from the same month in 2017.

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.75 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

May 19 Corn closed at $3.84 1/2, up 1/4 cent,

Jul 19 Corn closed at $3.92 1/2, up 1/4 cent

Sep 19 Corn closed at $3.96 1/2, up 1/4 cent

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Soybean Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Soybean futures ended Friday with the nearby contracts steady to 3/4 cents lower. Meal futures were down 30 cents/ton in the nearby contract, with soy oil 2 points higher. After the close, a tweet from Secretary Perdue indicated that China committed to purchase another 10 MMT of soybeans on Friday. Export sales of old crop soybeans in the weeks of Jan 10-Feb 14 were tallied at 6.532 MMT, with a weekly average of 1.089 MMT. That was on the lower end of estimates, but more than double the same six week total in 2018! China purchased a majority of the total at 3.923 MMT, with Egypt buying 602,500 MT. Export commitments for 18/19 have now improved to 17.5% below last year as of 2/14. The Fats & Oils report showing delayed December data indicated that 183.5 mbu of soybeans were crushed in that month. That was a monthly record crush number and 4.1% larger yr/yr. Total oil stocks were seen at 1.601 billion pounds. A preliminary USDA estimate for the 2019/20 soybean S&D table shows ending stocks at 845 mbu, which would be down from the current 910 mbu 18/19 projection.

Mar 19 Soybeans closed at $9.10 1/4, down 3/4 cent,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.23 3/4, down 1/2 cent,

Jul 19 Soybeans closed at $9.37 1/4, down 1/4 cent,

Sep 19 Soybeans closed at $9.46, unch,

Mar 19 Soybean Meal closed at $305.60, down $0.30,

Mar 19 Soybean Oil closed at $30.51, up $0.02

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Wheat Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Wheat futures saw fractional to 3 1/4 cent gains in the winter wheat contracts, with MPLS up 5 to 9 cents. On the week, nearby CBT was down 3.47%, with KC 3.78% lower and MPLS 1.09% in the red. The now up to date Export Sale report from this morning indicated that a total of 3.575 MMT of old crop wheat was sold in the weeks of 1/10-2/14. At a weekly average of 595,801 MT, that was above the range of estimates and 87.9% larger than the same six weeks last year. Nigeria was the top buyer of 444,400 MT, with unknown purchasing 400,600 MT. New crop sales totaled 244,090 MT in that timeframe. Total commitments (shipped and unshipped sales) are now 0.2% above a year ago, for the first time this MY. At the USDA Ag Outlook Forum, a preliminary estimate of 944 mbu of wheat was shown for 19/20 ending stocks, down 66 mbu from the current 18/19 projection.

Mar 19 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.86 3/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 19 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.58 1/2, up 3 1/4 cents,

Mar 19 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.66 3/4, up 9 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cattle Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Live cattle futures closed steady to $1.05 higher on Friday. Feeder cattle futures were mixed with front months down 2.5 to 32.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was up 20 cents on February 21 at $141.31. Wholesale boxed beef prices were higher on Friday afternoon, widening the Ch/Select spread to $7.04. Choice boxes were up $1.32 at $219.39 with Select 94 cents higher at $212.35. USDA estimated the weekly FI cattle slaughter at 577,000 head through Saturday. That was down 19,000 head from last week but 2,000 above than the same week last year. The delayed January Cattle on Feed report showed Jan 1 on feed at 11.69 million head, up 1.75% from last year. December placements were down 1.78% at 1.767 million head, with marketings 0.63% lower than last year at 1.741 million head. Frozen stocks of beef were down 3.71% from November at 495.624 million head, which was 1.55% larger than the previous year. Cash cattle bids were shown at $126 late on Friday afternoon.

Feb 19 Cattle closed at $128.675, up $1.050,

Apr 19 Cattle closed at $128.875, up $0.275,

Jun 19 Cattle closed at $119.475, up $0.225,

Mar 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $142.900, down $0.325

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.300, down $0.225

May 19 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.850, down $0.025

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Lean Hogs Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Lean Hog futures were mixed on Friday, with front months 32.5 to 50 cents lower and back months higher. April was down 6.85% on the week. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 7 cents from the previous day @ $54.06 on February 20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $2.22 on Friday afternoon at an average weighted price of $59.01. The rib was the only primal reported higher, with the belly down $9.21. The national base cash hog carcass value was up 42 cents in the PM report, with a weighted average of $46.76. USDA estimated weekly FI hog slaughter at 2.512 million head through Saturday. That was down 2,000 head from the previous week but well above the same week last year. Accumulated pork export sales for the weeks of 1/10-2/14 were 122,900 MT, averaging 20,483 MT/week. China was both buying and shipping. Pork stocks in the freezer at the end of December were reported at 505.287 million pounds this afternoon. That was slightly lower than the previous month but up 3.11% from last year. China’s Ag ministry reported January sow numbers were down 15% from last year, with total inventory numbers down 13%.

Apr 19 Hogs closed at $55.450, down $0.500,

May 19 Hogs closed at $65.475, down $0.325

Jun 19 Hogs closed at $75.900, up $0.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management

Cotton Market News and Commentary

February 22, 2019

Cotton futures ended the day with most contracts 35 to 100 points in the red. Nearby March was up 2.31% this week. The Cotlook A Index was UNCH on February 21 to 80.30 cents/lb. The USDA Adjusted World Price was updated to 61.80 cents/ lb on Thursday, down 47 points from the previous week. The Export Sales report showed all old crop upland cotton bookings of 977,144 RB in the weeks of 1/10-2/14. That averaged 162,857 RB per week and was 46.09% shy of the same time frame in 2018. Turkey was the top buyer of 352,800 RB, with China cancelling a net 28,100 RB. There were 161,392 RBs in new crop sales, with 85,600 RB sold to China. Total commitments have slipped to 7.8% lower than the year previous. The USDA released preliminary forecasts for 19/20 cotton numbers, showing production at 22.5 million bales and carryout rising 2 million bales to a burdensome 6.3 million.

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 71.840, down 35 points,

May 19 Cotton closed at 73.010, down 100 points

Jul 19 Cotton closed at 74.170, down 82 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management


Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
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