AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

May 18, 2018

Corn futures ended the Friday session with 6 to 7 1/2 cent gains in the front months, as nearby July was up 6 cents on the week. That followed a report that China has dropped their Anti-dumping investigation into US sorghum and removed the 178.6% deposit requirement. Payments made into that fund will be rebated. Managed money was reported to trim their CFTC net long position in corn futures and options by 20,220 contracts in the week that ended May 15. Their net position stood at 191,672 contracts on that day. China sold 3.28 MMT of corn from state reserves on Friday, totaling 52.7% of the total amount offered.

Jul 18 Corn closed at $4.02 1/2, up 7 1/4 cents,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $4.11, up 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $4.20 1/4, up 7 1/4 cents

Mar 19 Corn closed at $4.28 1/4, up 6 1/2 cents

Soybeans

May 18, 2018

Soybean futures got a little help from the rest of the commodity complex to hold out for 3 to 4 cent gains on Friday. Soy meal was up $1.20/ton, with front month soy oil 4 points higher. The USDA reported export sales cancelations of 829,000 MT for old crop soybeans and 120,000 MT for new crop. They also reported 56,000 MT in sales for 17/18 and 112,000 MT for 18/19 all for unknown destinations through their daily reporting system. Spill over from corn and wheat helped to offset that news. Friday’s CFTC report showed spec funds in soybean futures and options backing off their net long position by 18,981 contracts. Their net position on Tuesday was 108,061 contracts. Palm oil prices hit a 5 week high on Friday, helping to support soy oil and vice versa.

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $9.98 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.02 1/2, up 3 3/4 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.04 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $10.12 1/4, up 3 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybean Meal closed at $376.30, up $1.20,

Jul 18 Soybean Oil closed at $30.98, up $0.04

Wheat

May 18, 2018

Wheat futures saw sharp 19 to 20 3/4 cent gains in most CBT and KC contracts on Friday, with MPLS 12 to 14 1/4 cents higher. Both nearby KC and MPLS were up 4% on the week, with CBT 3.9% higher. Dryness in other major exporting countries helped, along with strength in corn. Spec traders in Chicago wheat futures and options flipped their CFTC net position by 9,848 contracts back to the short side at -5,522 contracts. In KC wheat they trimmed 4,440 contracts off their net long position to 44,190 contracts in the week ending May 15. Iraq purchased 100,000 MT of wheat in their recent tender, with 50,000 MT sourced from the US and Australia each. Pakistan is tendering for 500,000 MT of wheat, with late July delivery, through a government export subsidy program.

Jul 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.18 1/4, up 20 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.38 3/4, up 19 3/4 cents,

Jul 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.29, up 14 1/4 cents

Cattle

May 18, 2018

Live cattle futures posted 40 to 87.5 cent losses on Friday to end a week that saw June fall 4.85%. Feeder cattle futures were 87.5 cents to $1.425 lower, with May down 4.48% since last Friday. The CME feeder cattle index was down $1.17 on May 17 at $133.66. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Friday afternoon. Choice boxes were down 47 cents at $232.21, with Select boxes 22 cents higher at $208.46. Weekly FI cattle slaughter is estimated at 660,000 head through Saturday. That is 15,000 head above last week and 48,000 head larger than this time last year, as the “wall of cattle” is becoming a reality. Cash trade started the week out near $117 and dropped to $114 in most regions by the end of the week. CFTC showed managed money was net long position 9,091 contracts in live cattle futures and options. That was as of Tuesday, May 15, and 6,013 contracts less long than the week prior.

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $102.400, down $0.650,

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $98.225, down $0.875,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $101.700, down $0.600,

May 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $132.225, down $0.875

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.625, down $1.100

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $137.800, down $1.275

Lean Hogs

May 18, 2018

Lean hog futures settled with losses of 30 cents to $1.775 on Friday. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 87 cents from the previous day to $67.01 on May 16 and continues to rise seasonally. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.59 at $73.91 this afternoon. All primals but the butt and belly saw sharp losses. Bellies were up 12% for the week. The national base hog weighted average price was 16 cents lower at $64.89 on Friday afternoon. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 2.348 million head through the weekend. That is a 35,000 head jump from last week and 84,000 above the same week in 2017. CFTC data showed specs increasing their net short position in lean hog futures and options by 1,239 contracts to -7,858 contracts as of May 15.

Jun 18 Hogs closed at $74.700, down $1.775,

Jul 18 Hogs closed at $77.250, down $0.950

Aug 18 Hogs closed at $76.625, down $1.000

Cotton

May 18, 2018

Cotton futures posted strong 79 to 152 point gains in the front months on Friday. Nearby July was up 2.28% on the week. Bulls are talking up Chinese crop problems. Thursday’s CFTC cotton on call report showed mills trimming their unfixed call sales position for July by 5,442 contracts. That position was still at 49,643 contracts on Friday May 11. The Commitment of Traders report on Friday showed large spec funds reducing their net long position in cotton futures and options by 8,605 contracts. As of Tuesday their net position stood at 89,260 contracts. The Cotlook A index was up 45 points from the previous day to 92.50 cents/lb on May 17. The USDA Adjusted World Price for this week is 74.09 cents/lb, down 149 points from the previous week.

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 86.550, up 152 points,

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 83.820, up 79 points

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 82.430, up 98 points


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