AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Corn futures are currently fractionally lower after seeing 1 1/2 to 3 1/4 cent gains on Monday. Yesterday morning’s Export Inspections report from the USDA showed 1.263 MMT in corn shipments during the week of September 20. That was up 21.95% from the week prior and 61.97% larger than the same time last year. NASS indicated that 72% of the US corn crop was mature as of 9/23 (vs. avg. 53%), with harvest 16% complete (avg. 11%). Condition ratings improved 1% in the gd/ex categories to 69%, moving the Brugler500 index 2 points higher to 375. The condition ratings improvements in September are consistent with above trend yield years.

Soybeans Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Soybean futures are trading 5 to 6 cents higher in a Turnaround Tuesday attempt to fade Monday action. They ended the Monday session with most contracts 5 to 6 1/4 cents lower. Nearby soy meal was down $1.20/ton, while soy oil was up 17 points. As of Sunday, USDA reported that 71% of the US soybean crop had leaves dropping (avg. 57%), with harvest 14% complete (the 5 year avg. is 8%). Condition ratings were up 1% to 68% gd/ex, with the Brugler500 two points higher at 374. That is still below the record yield years of 2014 and 2016, but it is with 6 points of the former. Export inspections of just 693,890 MT were reported by the USDA for the week ending 9/20. That was down 11.75% from the previous week and 33.07% lower than the same week in 2017.

Wheat Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Wheat futures are mostly 3 to 4 cents lower in the CHI and KC contracts this morning. MPLS spring wheat is 1 to 2 cents lower. Wheat ended Monday with most MPLS contracts steady to 2 cents higher. CBT and KC contracts were 3 to 5 1/4 cents in the green on the Monday session. The weekly Export Inspections report indicated that 409,592 MT of wheat was shipped in the week that ended 9/20. That was just slightly lower than the previous week but still lagging this week last year by 18.53%. Through the first 3 1/2 months of the 18/19 MY, wheat exports have totaled just 6.525 MT (240 mbu), 29.31% behind last year. As of September 23, NASS showed that 28% of the US winter wheat crop had been planted, creeping past the average of 26%.

Cattle Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Live cattle futures posted 82 cent to $1.45 losses on Monday. Feeder cattle futures were 55 cents to $1.80 lower in the front months. The CME feeder cattle index on September 21 was up $1.05 at $157.34. Wholesale boxed beef values were higher on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up $1.36 to $206.16, while Select boxes were 58 cents higher at $195.39. USDA estimated FI cattle slaughter at 119,000 head on Monday. That is up 5,000 from last week and 2,000 head above the same week in 2017. Monday’s Cold Storage report indicated that frozen stocks of beef on August 31 were a monthly record 503.449 million pounds. That was 3.99% larger than the end of July and 5.64% above August 2017.

Lean Hogs Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Lean hog futures settled mixed on Monday, as Dec was down 42.5 cents with most other contracts higher. The CME Lean Hog Index was up $1.65 on September 20 to $59.09. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 84 cents higher on Monday afternoon at $80.02. The national base hog carcass value was $1.03 higher in the Monday afternoon report at $60.53. FI hog slaughter on Monday was estimated at 472,000 head. That is up 56,000 head from last week and 13,000 head larger than the same week last year, with NC plants back up and running. Frozen pork stocks at the end of August were reported at 582.592 million pounds by the USDA. That was 5.99% larger than July and up 1.2% vs. August 2017. Belly stocks were shown at 34.969 million pounds, up 14% from July.

Cotton Market Commentary

September 25, 2018

Cotton futures are trading 7 to 11 points lower in the front months this morning. They were mostly 50 to 62 points lower on Monday. The Fed is meeting this week, with most expecting a 0.25% increase to short term interest rates on Wednesday. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report showed that 58% of the US cotton crop had bolls open as of Sunday, with 16% harvested. Condition ratings were reported at 39% gd/ex, matching the week prior. The Brugler500 index saw a 5 point jump to 313 on a reduction in poor/very poor ratings. The Cotlook A index was down 20 points from the previous day at 88.10 cents/lb on September 21. The USDA weekly AWP was updated to 71.59 cents/lb on Thursday, down 2.20 cents from the week prior.

Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
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